The 3x3 for a private company

A private company has no 10-K, no earnings call and no investor deck. That's not a reason to skip research. It's a reason to read different sources, and to lean harder on the people.

The 3x3 still works. Three sources, up to three facts each. What changes is where you find them and which panel carries the weight.

Public record without filings

Private companies put out more than you'd think. They just don't put it in one place.

Job posts are the richest source. A private firm hiring a head of data, four platform engineers and a procurement manager is telling you its plan in plain language. Read the requirements, not just the titles. The tools named in a job post are the closest thing you'll get to a published tech stack.

Press releases come next. Acquisitions, new facilities, new product lines, new executives. Private companies announce good news, and good news usually comes with work attached.

Funding and deals show up in trade press and on the investor's own site. A private equity owner announcing a platform investment or an add-on acquisition is a public record of a coming integration.

Public tenders matter too. Private companies that sell to government often show up as bidders or awardees, and that tells you what they're building toward.

Pick the three facts that point at the same problem. Don't collect nine trivia items about the company.

Social context carries more weight

With thin public record, the people do more of the talking.

Look at who's new. A private company that just hired an outside CFO or a first-ever CIO is changing how it runs. The first 90 days of that person are your best window.

Read what leaders post. Owners and executives of private firms tend to post more candidly than public company officers, since there's no disclosure lawyer reading over their shoulder. A founder writing about how hard it's been to hire engineers in a new city is giving you the misery for free.

Check what they react to. A COO liking posts about ERP migrations three times in a month is telling you what's on her desk.

And look for your own history. A past champion who just landed at this company is worth more than any filing.

The market panel fills the gaps

When the company itself is quiet, read what's around it.

What are the two closest competitors doing? If both just announced a new platform or a new service line, your target is likely under pressure to answer.

Who are the leaders following? The analysts, podcasters and operators a CEO follows tell you how he thinks about his business. I covered more of this in the 3x3 for a public company, and the market panel works the same way at both.

A worked example

Say a private, family-backed distributor of industrial parts posts for a director of e-commerce and two integration developers, and its new COO posts about modernizing order management. A close competitor just launched self-serve online ordering.

That's three panels, one problem. The 3x3 hands you the opener.

Noticed the team is hiring a director of e-commerce and two integration developers, right as your largest competitor went live with self-serve ordering. In your first months as COO, I'd guess the pressure is getting online orders flowing into the ERP without a team re-keying them. Is that right, or is the bigger issue upstream?

Nothing in that note came from a filing. All of it is checkable. And if you're wrong, he'll tell you what's actually going on.

Where people go wrong

They give up when they don't find a 10-K. Or they fill the gap with guesses about revenue and headcount from data vendors, then lead with a number the buyer knows is wrong.

Don't put estimated financials in an opener to a private company. Owners notice, and it reads as presumptuous.

Stick to facts the company or its people put out themselves. They're smaller facts, but they're true, and the buyer recognizes them on sight. The full method is on the method page. For private companies, the rule is simple. Read the jobs, read the people, read the competitors.