Finding signals at private companies

Private companies don't file 10-Ks. That doesn't make them quiet. They leave signals all over the place. You just have to look in different spots.

And since fewer sellers bother, a private company that's showing signals is often less crowded than a public one.

Job posts carry the most weight

For private companies, job posts are the closest thing to a filing. They tell you what the company is building, what it runs on and where the pain is.

A private distributor posting for an ERP project manager and two business analysts is telling you a systems program is underway. A post that names the platform tells you their stack. A brand new title, like a first-ever head of data, tells you they're investing in something they never had.

Read the whole post. The "about the role" section often describes the problem more honestly than any press release would. Phrases like "build from the ground up" or "modernize our legacy systems" are about as close to a misery hypothesis as a company will hand you.

Leadership moves

New leaders show up on LinkedIn, often before any announcement. A new CFO, CIO or COO at a private company is just as strong a signal as at a public one, and the first 90 days still matter.

At family-owned and founder-led companies, watch for the first outside executive. When a company that's always been run by the family brings in a professional CFO or COO, change is coming. That person was hired to fix something.

And watch for your old champions. Someone who bought from you before and just joined a private company is a warm door.

Ownership changes

Private equity buying a company is one of the loudest signals in the private market. New owners bring new targets, new reporting demands and usually a plan to change systems and processes fast. The post on private equity ownership covers the timing.

Smaller acquisitions show up too. A private company buying a competitor has to bring systems and teams together.

These deals get reported in trade press, local business journals and the buyer's own announcements, even when nobody files anything with the SEC.

Local and trade news

Business journals and trade publications cover private companies the national press ignores. Expansions, new facilities, big contract wins, leadership changes and awards.

A private manufacturer opening a second plant needs systems, people and processes to run it. A logistics company that won a big regional contract needs to scale fast.

Private companies that sell to government show up on public procurement sites as bidders and winners. A win tells you they're about to grow. A pattern of bids in a new area tells you where they're heading.

The owners' own words

Founders and CEOs of private companies often post on LinkedIn or speak at local events and on industry podcasts. They tend to be more candid than public company executives, since there's no investor relations team reviewing every word.

When a founder talks about how growth is outrunning their systems, or how hard it's been to hire, that's a topic signal straight from the economic buyer.

The post on the 3x3 for a private company shows how to organize this research. Public record becomes job posts, news and ownership changes. Social context is the leaders and what they post. Market is competitors and the voices they follow.

Look for stacking. A new CFO plus ERP job posts plus a PE deal at the same company in the same few weeks is a strong story, filing or no filing.

Then write to the committee, not one name. At a private company the owner or CEO is often the economic buyer, the new finance or operations leader is the champion, and whoever posted those job openings is close to the technical lead.

Private companies take more digging. But the signals are there, and the competition for them is thinner.